Alfredo Morelos

The matchup is the biggest reason to start him: Jaguares concede 1.75 goals per game, and Morelos has 11 goals in 23 appearances this season while generating roughly 0.65 expected goals per 90, so he should see the chances to convert away at Córdoba. He is a regular in Nacional's Starting XI, listed as a starter and averaging heavy minutes, with five appearances in the last 5 game weeks and fourteen appearances in the last 15 game weeks, which gives a dependable floor because he finishes most matches. Combine that workload with Nacional's positive team form and a Sorare Edge projection of 79.1 (model confidence medium) and you get a high ceiling here; expectation should be framed as probability, not guarantee, but this is one of Nacional's clearest single-game scoring assets.