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Why we like him
Hot pick for upside rather than a safe floor. He has eight goals in 17 Serie A appearances this season and 6.44 expected goals, and he is averaging 0.60 goals per match over the last five while making five appearances in the last 5 game weeks, which supports the idea he's seeing the chances to actually finish. Chapecoense have been the league's softest defensive team, conceding 39 goals with a 33.6 xG conceded, and this fixture at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira sets up well for a forward who is getting regular minutes. Coritiba treat him as a regular in the Starting XI. He has 12 appearances in the last 15 game weeks and your 86 minutes-per-game figure plus the Sorare Edge projection of 81.6 (model confidence medium) point to a high ceiling; the tradeoff is a capped floor because Coritiba's team form index sits at 26.67, so expect volatility but real scoring upside.